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The Really Big One

The next full-margin rupture of the Cascadia subduction zone will spell the worst natural disaster in the history of the continent. Credit Illustration by Christoph Niemann; Map by Ziggymaj / GettyImage: The next full-margin rupture of the Cascadia subduction zone will spell the worst natural disaster in the history of the continent. Credit Illustration by Christoph Niemann; Map by Ziggymaj / Getty

newyorker.com - July 20th, 2015 - Kathryn Schulz

When the 2011 earthquake and tsunami struck Tohoku, Japan, Chris Goldfinger was two hundred miles away, in the city of Kashiwa, at an international meeting on seismology. As the shaking started, everyone in the room began to laugh. Earthquakes are common in Japan—that one was the third of the week—and the participants were, after all, at a seismology conference.

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Toxic Tide Shows Up Early in Sag Harbor

High levels of Cochlodinium detected in Sag Harbor cove last week could put shellfish and finfish at risk.13 August 2014 - By Mara Certic

Just weeks after blue-green algal blooms were detected in Georgica Pond, extremely high levels of the toxic rust alga Cochlodinium have emerged in Sag Harbor and East Hampton waters.

Cochlodinium first appeared on Long Island in 2004 and has been detected in local waters every summer since. According to Professor Christopher Gobler, who conducts water quality testing and is a professor at Stony Brook University’s School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, densities above 500 cells per milliliter can be lethal to both finfish and shellfish. The Gobler Laboratory recorded Cochlodinium at densities exceeding 30,000 cells per milliliter in Sag Harbor Cove, and over 1,000 in Accabonac and Three Mile Harbors.

http://sagharborexpress.com/toxic-tide-shows-up-early-in-sag-harbor/

http://sagharboronline.com/sagharborexpress/page-1/toxic-tide-shows-up-early-in-sag-harbor-32598

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SOME FACILITATION EXAMPLES FOR STRUCTURAL ADAPTIVITY

  

I believe that structural adaptivity will become generally accepted in our world even without conscious effort.  As change continues speeding up, and as planners, developers, futurists, risk managers, and many others come to recognize that change is coming at an accelerating rate and that the future is ever more uncertain and unpredictable, they will focus on adaptivity.  However, the longer we wait for people to realize this, the greater the chances are that much harm will occur that should have been avoided or mitigated by the resilience we should have been already building.

 

The facilitation strategies and techniques that I propose are primarily intended to show some logical possibilities.  Hopefully other people will be better able than I am to come up with the best ones. 

 

For now, I will present the full list of the possibilities that I have come up with and then present a discussion of a few of them. <!--break-->

 

My full list:

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Some Examples of Structural Adaptivity

 

As a follow-up to my post titled A New Approach, following below are several examples of how I propose that structural adaptivity should be applied as a guiding principle for future growth and development in the US.  As I explained before, I believe that structural adaptivity is the only logical approach to building our man-made environment for a rapidly changing, uncertain, unpredictable future.

 

Bus Rapid Transit.  Bus rapid transit (BRT) is a system of individual self-propelled vehicles (often several linked together) that can and do travel on conventional streets and highways, on dedicated lanes on surface streets, and/or on separate intersection-free busways dedicated to buses only.  Likewise, the rapid transit buses can leave their normal routes of travel and enter and leave most all areas of a city or region.  As a modern system providing rapid mass transit, it also normally has features similar to rail rapid transit, e.g., off-board fare collection, platform-level boarding, efficient and rapid scheduling, etc., and it oftentimes has traffic signaling priority at any street intersections.

 

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WEATHER ADVISORY -URGENT

Tue Nov 26 15:57:54 2013 
STATUS: Open - Active 
PROGNOSIS: Monitoring 
Weather-Nor-Easter 
Citywide  

 

(OEM WEATHER DISTRIBUTION LIST)

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 
345 PM EST TUE NOV 26 2013

...STRONG WINDS EXPECTED FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MAINLY 
IN AND NEAR NEW YORK CITY AND COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW 
YORK AND CONNECTICUT...

NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-HUDSON- 
SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX- 
RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHERN QUEENS- 
SOUTHERN QUEENS- 
345 PM EST TUE NOV 26 2013

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST 
WEDNESDAY...

* LOCATIONS...NEW YORK CITY...HUDSON COUNTY...SOUTHERN 
  WESTCHESTER COUNTY... COASTAL SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT...AND 
  NORTHERN MIDDLESEX COUNTY.

* HAZARDS...STRONG WINDS.

* WINDS...SOUTHEAST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.

* TIMING...STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY 
  WEDNESDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...POTENTIAL FOR DOWNED TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES...AND 
  POSSIBLY A FEW TREES...CAUSING PROPERTY DAMAGE AND POWER 
  OUTAGES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

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Researchers Use GPS Data to Speed Up Tsunami Warnings

      

In this Jan. 2, 2005 file photo, a wide area of destruction is shown from an aerial view taken over Meulaboh, 250 kilometers (156 Miles) west of Banda Aceh, Indonesia. Researchers in the United States are hoping to use GPS data to speed up current warnings. (AP Photo/Dita Alangkara, File)

U.S. seismologists currently testing new warning system

by Andrew Pinsent - CBC News - May 5, 2012

Scientists in the United States have been testing an advanced tsunami warning system using GPS data, combined with traditional seismology networks, to attempt to detect the magnitude of an earthquake faster so warnings of potential tsunamis can get out to potentially affected areas sooner.

The prototype is called California Integrated Seismic Network (CISN), and is a collaboration between the United States Geological Survey (USGS) and The Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation, whose focus is on environmental conservation.

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Transforming Earthquake Detection?

submitted by Linton Wells

sciencemag.org - January 20, 2012

Earthquakes are a collective experience. Citizens have long participated in earthquake science through the reporting, collection, and analysis of individual experiences. The value of citizen-generated status reports was clear after the 1995 Kobe, Japan, earthquake (1). Today's communications infrastructure has taken citizen engagement to a new level: Earthquake-related Twitter messages can outrun the shaking (2), Internet traffic detects earthquakes (37) and maps the distribution of shaking in minutes (810), and accelerometers in consumer electronic devices record seismic waveforms (1116). What are we learning from this flood of data, and what are the limitations? How do we harness these new capabilities for scientific discovery, and what is the role of education?

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