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THE SCIENCE OF SUPERSPREADING Why preventing hot spots of transmission is key to stopping the COVID-19 pandemic

Sat, 2020-10-31 10:05 — mike kraft

 

THE SCIENCE OF SUPERSPREADING

 

 Click on above link for graphics illustrating superspreading events.

 

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Extreme Weather Events Intensify Economic And Social Risks

Wed, 2018-06-27 09:10 — Kathy Gilbeaux

submitted by Carrie La Jeunesse

           

Corporate sustainability teams could play an important role in building resilience to environmental risks.

bloomberg.com - June 4, 2018

According to the World Economic Forum’s Global Risks Report 2018, three of the top five threats in terms of likelihood are environmental: extreme weather, natural disasters and the failure of climate change mitigation . . . 

. . . The reason for the seismic potential of these environmental risks isn't just the risks themselves, but also their knock-on effects. In a global economy, every corporate executive has to consider the potential for cascading risks to threaten the systems that underpin our economy and society.

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This mock pandemic killed 150 million people. Next time it might not be a drill.

Fri, 2018-06-01 21:41 — Kathy Gilbeaux

CLICK HERE - CLADE X LIVESTREAM (ARCHIVED)

A panel of experts play out a pandemic exercise on May 15 to demonstrate what policies and strategies the U.S. government should have in place. (Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security)

submitted by Mike Kraft - washingtonpost.com - by Lena H. Sun - May 30, 2018

A novel virus, moderately contagious and moderately lethal, has surfaced and is spreading rapidly around the globe . . .

. . . So began a recent day-long exercise hosted by the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security. The simulation mixed details of past disasters with fictional elements to force government officials and experts to make the kinds of key decisions they could face in a real pandemic.

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What Happens If a Nuclear Bomb Goes Off in Manhattan?

Wed, 2017-03-15 13:12 — Maeryn Obley

Manhatten skyline. Lucas Jackson / Reuters

Image: Manhatten skyline. Lucas Jackson / Reuters

theatlantic.com - March 15th 2017 - Kaveh Waddell

On a quiet afternoon, two medium-sized nuclear blasts level portions of Manhattan.

If this were a movie, hordes of panicked New Yorkers would pour out into the streets, running around and calling out for their loved ones. But reality doesn’t usually line up with Hollywood’s vision of a disaster scene, says William Kennedy, a professor in the Center for Social Complexity at George Mason University. 

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U.S. agency offers legal immunity to Ebola vaccine makers

Tue, 2014-12-09 17:48 — mike kraft

REUTERS                                                                                                                    Dec. 9, 2014

CHICAGO -- The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services on Tuesday offered liability protections to drugmakers rushing to develop Ebola vaccines and urged other countries to follow suit.

Health and Human Services (HHS) Secretary Sylvia Burwell made the announcement as part of the Public Readiness and Emergency Preparedness (PREP) Act in a move aimed at encouraging the development and availability of experimental Ebola vaccines.

The declaration provides immunity under U.S. law against legal claims related to the manufacturing, testing, development, distribution, and administration of three vaccines for the Ebola virus. However, it does not provide immunity for a claim brought in a court outside the United States...

Read full story

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/12/09/us-health-ebola-vaccine-idUSKBN0JN1S920141209

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Conflicting Scenarios Exercise

Sat, 2014-08-16 20:46 — WDS1200-Columbus

I have been proposing that, rather than trying to foresee the future, we consider accepting and conducting further research on a much more fundamental, all-encompassing and long-term-resilient approach to our built environment.  I have been proposing that such an elemental approach should be structural adaptivity.  I believe that our world must and will give maximum adaptivity to the basic elements of our built environment to adjust to and meet our needs for the unpredictable, rapidly changing world over the next 50-100 years. 

 

 

In working on this, I conducted an Exercise.  I experimented with a number of different future conditions, or scenarios, that I think are quite possible.  The first two that drew my strongest concern were the conflicting scenarios of: (1) how planners might address our urban areas after global warming has abated – and the problem is continuous hot weather and more storms – as opposed to (2) how planners are now addressing the need to stop or slow down global warming.  I also experimented with additional scenarios that I do not think we are able to, presently, forecast accurately.  Most of them, however, I believe will surface eventually, in one way or another, and cause huge problems.

 

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Northeast Hurricane Modeling Outdated

Sun, 2014-07-27 00:10 — Kathy Gilbeaux

URI professor of oceanography Isaac Ginis. (Tim Faulkner/ecoRI News)

submitted by Sarah Slaughter

ecori.org - by Tim Faulkner - July 26, 2014

NARRAGANSETT — Hurricanes bound for New England will get about 10 percent more powerful by 2100, but the state lacks the tools to access their impacts, according to University of Rhode Island professor Isaac Ginis.

Hurricanes are powered by warm water, and the predicted increase in ocean temperatures caused by climate change is expected to make hurricane season longer and the storms stronger in the years ahead. .

. . . Numerous studies and models suggest the frequency of category 4 and 5 hurricanes are expected to increase by 81 percent, while the volume of rainfall is expected to increase 20 percent by 2100, Ginis said.

However, a key current modeling method used to measure the impacts of hurricanes and set flood insurance maps is outdated, he said.

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Great Shakeout Earthquake Drills

Thu, 2013-09-26 17:50 — Kathy Gilbeaux

       

submitted by Katie Cook

shakeout.org

Many areas of the globe are prone to earthquakes. You could be anywhere when an earthquake strikes: at home, at work, at school or even on vacation. Are you prepared to survive and to recover quickly?

Great ShakeOut earthquake drills are an opportunity to practice how to be safer during earthquakes: "Drop, Cover and Hold On." ShakeOut also has been organized to encourage you, your community, your school, or your organization to update emergency plans and supplies, and to secure your space in order to prevent damage and injuries.

(CLICK HERE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION)

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Emergency Capacity Building Project - Tools and Resources

Tue, 2012-09-11 21:36 — Kathy Gilbeaux

submitted by Tim Siftar

ecbproject.org

The Project

Disasters and humanitarian emergencies are increasing in magnitude and complexity*. This presents a major challenge to NGOs that respond to these emergencies.

In order to address this challenge, emergency directors from 7 agencies - CARE International, Catholic Relief Services, International Rescue Committee, Mercy Corps, Oxfam GB, Save the Children and World Vision International- came together in 2003 to discuss the most persistent obstacles in humanitarian aid delivery. The Inter-Agency Working Group (IWG) on Emergency Capacity that emerged from this meeting launched a systematic analysis, resulting in the publication of a Report on Emergency Capacity in 2004.

Phase II - launched in 2008

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Simulating the Effects of Different Actions to Minimize Disaster’s Consequences

Mon, 2012-06-04 16:49 — Kathy Gilbeaux

submitted by Linton Wells

homelandsecuritynewswire.com - June 1, 2012

The European CRISMA project prepares for disasters by developing a decision-support tool to help the authorities, responders, communities, and private parties to prioritize the most important measures for saving lives and mitigating the effects of the crisis.

The CRISMA project, coordinated by VTT Technical Research Center of Finland, is developing a planning tool for crises which have immediate, extensive, and often irreversible consequences to the population and society. Crises of this type include natural disasters, toxic emissions, forest fires, and aircraft accidents.

(READ COMPLETE ARTICLE)

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