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"Closing Time: Assessing the Iranian Threat to the Strait of Hormuz"

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There is a well-assessed concern that an escalating conflict between Iran and Israel, whether involving a direct engagement of the US military against Iran or not, could lead to the closing of the Strait of Hormuz.  If such a closure of this strategic shipping lane was to be attempted by Iran, the US and European economies, and other U.S. interests could be strongly impacted. In this scenaro, the U.S. military would likely engage in strikes against Iran.  Even if these strikes were limited initially, military conflict between the U.S. and Iran would be highly likely from this kind of event. 

The simplest illustration of this deepening threat is to look at what would happen to the global ecoonomy and the social ecology of US cities if oil prices were to double over a period of one week and be sustained at more than double current costs for two months.  

An article from the Kennedy School of Government gives an overview of the impacts of this type of event from the perspective of international security. 

"SUMMARY

How might Iran retaliate in the aftermath of a limited Israeli or U.S. strike? The most economically devastating of Iran’s potential responses would be closure of the Strait of Hormuz. According to open-source order of battle data, as well as relevant analogies from military history and GIS maps, Iran does possess significant littoral warfare capabilities, including mines, antiship cruise missiles, and land-based air defense. If Iran were able to properly link these capabilities, it could halt or impede traffic in the Strait of Hormuz for a month or more. U.S. attempts to reopen the waterway likely would escalate rapidly into sustained, large-scale air and naval operations during which Iran could impose significant economic and military costs on the United States—even if Iranian operations were not successful in truly closing the strait. The aftermath of limited strikes on Iran would be complicated and costly, suggesting needed changes in U.S. force posture and energy policy."

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