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Planet Has Just 5% Chance of Reaching Paris Climate Goal, Study Says

Researchers find that economic, emissions and population trends point to very small chance Earth will avoid warming more than 2C by century’s end


Environmental activists protest Donald Trump’s decision to exit the Paris climate accords, which set a goal of avoiding warming beyond 2C. Photograph: Scott Olson/Getty Images

CLICK HERE - RESEARCH - Nature Climate Change - Less than 2 °C warming by 2100 unlikely

CLICK HERE - RESEARCH - Nature Climate Change - Future global mortality from changes in air pollution attributable to climate change - by Oliver Milman - July 31, 2017

There is only a 5% chance that the Earth will avoid warming by at least 2C come the end of the century, according to new research that paints a sobering picture of the international effort to stem dangerous climate change.

Global trends in the economy, emissions and population growth make it extremely unlikely that the planet will remain below the 2C threshold set out in the Paris climate agreement in 2015, the study states.

The Paris accord, signed by 195 countries, commits to holding the average global temperature to “well below 2C” above pre-industrial levels and sets a more aspirational goal to limit warming to 1.5C. This latter target is barely plausible, the new research finds, with just a 1% chance that temperatures will rise by less than 1.5C.



CLICK HERE - Climate change expected to increase premature deaths from air pollution

CLICK HERE - IPCC - Climate Change 2014 Synthesis Report - Summary for Policymakers (32 page .PDF report)

CLICK HERE - UNFCCC - Paris Agreement (16 page .PDF agreement)




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Comments - by Amari Pollard - July 31, 2017

CLICK HERE - STUDY - Less than 2◦C warming by 2100 unlikely

CLICK HERE - STUDY - Committed warming inferred from observations

The earth's temperature could rise to more than 2 degrees Celsius, or 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit by the end of the century.

CNN reports that two different studies in the journal, Nature Climate Change, came to the conclusion on the rise in global temperature using two completely different methods.

The first study showed that there is a 95 percent chance the Earth will warm more than 2 degrees and a 1 percent chance that it will be at or below 2 degrees. The second study looked at past emissions of greenhouse gases and the burning of fossil fuels, showing that earth will continue to heat up around two more degrees by 2100 -- even if humans were to abruptly stop burning fossil fuels.



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