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CDC RELEASES ESTIMATES OF EBOLA CASES, COULD REACH 1.4 MILLION

 

New York Times

CDC  releases report on worst and best case estimates for Ebola cases. 

Estimates cover Liberia and Sierra Leone, based on computer modeling. Guinea not included because data  "cannot be reliably modeled."

Best case-model, which assures the dead are buried safely and 70 per cent of the patients are treated in settings that reduce the risk of transmission, suggest the epidemic could almost be ended by Jan. 20.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/24/health/ebola-cases-could-reach-14-million-in-4-months-cdc-estimates.html?emc=edit_na_20140923&nlid=12644555&_r=0

 

LINK TO THE CDC REPORT TEXT

http://apps.washingtonpost.com/g/page/national/ebola-cases-could-skyrocket-by-2015-says-cdc/1337/

CDC RELEASES ESTIMATES OF EBOLA CASES, COULD REACH 1.4 MILLION
http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/su6303a1.htm?s_cid=su6303a1_w

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London Group Plans to Start First Clinical Tests of Ebola Drugs in West Africa

Washington Post

by Abby Ohlheiser September 23 at 11:45 AM

London based scientists, working with international aid groups, are planning to start the first clinical trials in West Africa for drugs to treat Eboa. The trials could begin in a matter of months.

Wellcome Trust's $5 million initiative will include drugs from Mapp Biopharmaceutical, Sarepta and Tekmira, according to Reuters. Mapp makes zMapp, the experimental cocktail administered to two Americans who contracted the disease in Liberia. Tekmira recently gained the approval of the U.S. Food and Drug Administration to use its TKM-Ebola treatment on confirmed or suspected cases of the disease.

Both drugs are still in the experimental phase; researchers have not yet determined the safety or effectiveness of the treatments.

Text of full story:

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EBOLA MAY BECOME ENDEMIC TO WEST AFRICA WITH 71 PER CENT INFECTION RATE--WHO STUDY

LOS ANGLES TIMES     September 22, 10:25 PM

by Monte Morin

In a grim assessment of the Ebola epidemic, researchers say the deadly virus threatens to become endemic to West Africa instead of eventually disappearing from humans.

"The current epidemiologic outlook is bleak," wrote a panel of more than 60 World Health Organization experts in a study published Tuesday by the New England Journal of Medicine.

"We must therefore face the possibility that Ebola virus disease will become endemic among the human population of West Africa, a prospect that has never previously been contemplated."

In the absence of new control measures, the authors estimated that the total case load would exceed 20,000 by Nov 2.

Link to full story

http://www.latimes.com/science/sciencenow/la-sci-sn-ebola-may-be-endemic-in-people-20140922-story.html

Link to New England Journal of Medicine study

http://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa1411100?query=featured_ebola

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Upcoming CDC estimate reportedly predicts up to 500,000 Ebola victims - Leaked

Washington Post, September 20
 

The Ebola epidemic sweeping West Africa could infect up to 500,000 people by the end of January, according to a new estimate under development by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

The report is scheduled to be released next week, but work on it is still ongoing and projections could change, said a person who is familiar with its contents but was not authorized to speak because the report is not yet public.

Obama: U.S. military to provide equipment, resources to battle Ebola epidemic in Africa

- Sep 7 - The Washington Post

President Obama said Sunday that the U.S. military will begin aiding what has been a chaotic and ineffective response to the Ebola epidemic in West Africa, arguing that it represents a serious national security concern.

The move significantly ramps up the U.S. response and comes as the already strained military is likely to be called upon further to address militant threats in the Middle East. The decision to involve the military in providing equipment and other assistance for international health workers in Africa comes after mounting calls from some unlikely groups — most prominently the international medical organization Doctors Without Borders — demonstrating to the White House the urgency of the issue.

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U.S. Public Health Service Commissioned Corps to Help Treat Ebola Patients in Liberia

                               

hhs.gov - September 16, 2014

A team of specialized officers from the U.S. Public Health Service Commissioned Corps is being prepared to deploy to manage and staff a previously announced U.S. Department of Defense hospital in Liberia to care for health care workers who become ill from Ebola.

The U.S. Public Health Service Commissioned Corps is part of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. The Commissioned Corps is an elite uniformed service with more than 6,800 full-time, highly qualified public health professionals, serving the most underserved and vulnerable populations domestically and abroad.

Sixty-five Commissioned Corps officers, with diverse clinical and public health backgrounds, will travel to Liberia to provide direct patient care to health care workers. In addition to their professional expertise, these officers will undergo further intensive training in Ebola response and advanced infection control.

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UN Announces Mission to Combat Ebola, Declares Outbreak ‘Threat to Peace and Security’

un.org

18 September 2014 – The Security Council, in its first emergency meeting on a public health crisis, today declared the Ebola outbreak in West Africa a threat to peace and security, as Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon announced that the United Nations will deploy a new emergency health mission to combat one of most horrific diseases on the planet that has shattered the lives of millions.

“This international mission, to be known as the United Nations Mission for Ebola Emergency Response, or UNMEER, will have five priorities: stopping the outbreak, treating the infected, ensuring essential services, preserving stability and preventing further outbreaks,” Mr. Ban told the Security Council.

“Under the leadership of a Special Representative of the Secretary-General, the Mission will bring together the full range of UN actors and expertise in support of national efforts,” he said, adding that details of the mission were sent in a letter to the Security Council and the UN General Assembly.

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U.N. Security Council - Peace and Security in Africa (Ebola)

http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=48746#.VBuEjxZupbE

September 18, 2014

Deadly Ebola Outbreak Matters to Everyone, Secretary-General Tells Security Council, Urging Financial Support for Special Emergency Response Mission

Following are UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon’s remarks to the Security Council meeting on Ebola, in New York today:

http://www.un.org/News/Press/docs/2014/sgsm16154.doc.htm

http://webtv.un.org/#

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Why is Obama sending military to attack the Ebola virus?

by Joe RaedleBy Julia Belluz - Sep 18, 2014 - vox.com

Tuesday's announcement by President Barack Obama — that the US would be sending in an army of 3,000 to fight Ebola — came as a relief to the many wondering when the international community would wake up to the daily horror show playing out in West Africa.But the tactics also raised some questions: why was Obama sending soldiers to fight off a virus? And why has he been characterizing this disease spread as a "security threat" and "security priority"?

Why Obama is describing Ebola as a "security threat"

Obama has repeatedly referred to the threat of Ebola in security terms, arguing the virus could cripple the already fragile economies in the African region. He's made the case that this will have consequences for not only the security of countries there, but also for nations around the world — even if the virus doesn't spread beyond Africa.

http://www.vox.com/2014/9/17/6334943/why-is-the-military-being-sent-to-attack-ebola-virus/in/5712456

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Very Few Aircraft Equipped to Evacuate Ebola Patients

submitted by Mike Kraft

      

Phoenix Air, which has equipped two Gulfstream III planes to accommodate Ebola patients, has so far transported 5 such patients.  Photo - Phoenix Air Group

cidrap.umn.edu - by Robert Roos - September 16, 2014

With West Africa's burgeoning Ebola epidemic expected to last at least 6 to 9 more months, the demand for evacuations of visiting medical workers who get infected seems likely to grow. That demand might well collide with a shortage of aircraft that are equipped to safely transport Ebola patients.

The four Ebola patients who have been evacuated from West Africa to the United States have all been flown by Phoenix Air of Carterville, Ga., which has two Gulfstream III business jets that are specially equipped to carry such patients at minimal risk to others on the plane.

Other aircraft that are properly equipped to transport Ebola patients are very scarce, according to US mission organizations that have arranged evacuations for a few of their workers in West Africa.

(READ COMPLETE ARTICLE)

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