Delta variant reportedly far more widespread in the U.S. than federal official estimates

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Fri, 2021-07-09 12:09 — mike kraft

Delta variant said to be far more widespread than federal estimates The reality on the ground is likely much higher because states and private labs are taking weeks to report testing results to the CDC. POLITICO

The more-transmissible Delta coronavirus variant is believed to be significantly more widespread than the current federal projections, according to two senior Biden administration health officials with knowledge of the situation.

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention data released late Tuesday shows the Delta strain accounted for more than 51 percent of new Covid-19 cases from June 20 to July 3. But the reality on the ground is likely much higher because states and private labs are taking weeks to report testing results to the CDC, the officials said.

“It is everywhere now,” one of the officials said, adding that recent data shows the Pfizer Covid vaccine works well against the Delta variant. “The risk really is in the unvaccinated community. We’re starting to see more and more people get sick and need medical attention.”

Covid-19 hospitalizations are up more than 40 percent over the last two weeks in Arkansas, Iowa and Nevada. And emerging evidence from a repository of genetic sequences compiled by Scripps Research's Outbreak.info suggests that the Delta strain accounted for as much as two-thirds of new Covid cases nationwide over the past two weeks. The site notes the data "may not represent the true prevalence of the mutations in the population."

The CDC's data on where the variant is spreading and at what rate relies on reports from state and private labs that sequence samples that test positive for Covid-19. But the process often relies on testing batches of samples that can take weeks to complete. That delays the speed with which Delta infections are reported, according to the Biden health officials and multiple state public health officials.

The lack of real-time data has left local health officials unprepared as hospitalizations have surged in parts of the Midwest and Southwest. It also raises questions about how the officials can control the spread as the pace of vaccination slows.

“I am a little surprised how quickly Delta has become widespread,” said Ashish Jha, dean of Brown University’s School of Public Health. “We’re one week into July and it is everywhere. It suggests that it is far, far more contagious than the Alpha variant. It makes me nervous … how contagious it is and how quickly it has spread.”

Mike Cima, an epidemiology officer with Arkansas’ public health department, said it can take from five days to up to two weeks to get CDC data back, adding that his state works with the agency and the University of Minnesota to sequence Covid-19 samples. ...

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