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New poll: The U.S. is about to run out of adults who are eager to get vaccinated; herd immunity unlikely
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The U.S. is about to run out of adults who are ready and willing to get vaccinated against COVID-19, according to a new Yahoo News/YouGov poll.
The survey of 1,558 Americans 18 or older, which was conducted from April 27 to April 29, found that while the number who say they have already been vaccinated (57 percent) has continued to climb in recent weeks, just 6 percent now say they have not yet been vaccinated but plan to get a shot “as soon as it is available to me.”
That’s down from 35 percent in February and 17 percent earlier in April. ...
At the same time, the share of adults who say they are unsure (7 percent), are waiting to see “what happens to others before deciding” (10 percent) or will “never” get vaccinated (20 percent) has not budged.
The implication is stark: Unless many of the unvaccinated Americans who have been saying for months that they’re waiting or unsure have a sudden change of heart, fewer than 65 percent of U.S. adults are likely to be inoculated against COVID-19 this spring — far short of the level experts say is required for the kind of lasting population-wide protection known as herd immunity.
Reaching that threshold — the point when an estimated 80 percent of all Americans regardless of age have been vaccinated and the coronavirus runs out of potential hosts — would then require an additional 96 million U.S. residents to be vaccinated, a process that could presumably begin when regulators approve the COVID vaccines for use in children.
The only problem? There are just 73 million minors in the entire country, and nowhere near all of them will be vaccinated.
Herd immunity through vaccination, in other words, seems almost certain to elude the U.S. — an outcome that has become increasingly plausible in recent weeks as vaccine supply outstrips demand and the average number of daily doses administered starts to slip.
This doesn’t mean the pandemic will never subside in the U.S. The immunity induced by prior infection is also powerful (if less so) and tens of millions of Americans have already been infected, further limiting the virus’s opportunities for transmission. In the poll, 44 percent of respondents say America has gotten past the worst of the pandemic, and they’re probably correct. Just half that number (22 percent) say the worst is yet to come.
But the U.S. may head into the colder fall and winter months with more lingering vulnerability to outbreaks than a country like Israel, where a full 80 percent of adults have already been vaccinated. (In line with the Yahoo News/YouGov poll, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reports that 55.4 percent of U.S. adults have been vaccinated.) ...
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