Situation Report

Ebola Infections Fewer Than Predicted by Disease Models

A few months ago the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention predicted that up to 1.4 million people in Liberia and Sierra Leone could become infected with Ebola by mid-January. In a recent address to the Senate, CDC director Tom Frieden said that worst-case scenario would not pan out.

That is partly because health care workers in the Ebola hot zone are engaged in a battle to contain the epidemic. It is also because of assumptions about human and viral behavior that are built into the mathematical models used to predict the spread of infectious diseases. Assumptions are inherent in these models. “You take islands of data from different places and build bridges of assumptions that link up all these islands,” says Martin Meltzer, senior health economist at the CDC. Meltzer’s model, which predicted the 1.4 million infections in Liberia and Sierra Leone, worked on the assumption that things would not improve. “Our forecasts are based on the idea that nothing will change,” he says.

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Ebola still spreading in western Sierra Leone, Guinea's forest: U.N

REUTERS    By Stephanie Nebehay                                                                                 Dec. 9, 2014
GENEVA --More foreign health workers are needed to help tackle the Ebola epidemic, which is spreading quickly in western Sierra Leone and deep in the forested interior of Guinea, a senior U.N. official said on Tuesday.

A woman walks pass an Ebola virus awareness campaign poster in Monrovia, December 8, 2014. Credit: Reuters/James Giahyue

The death toll from the Ebola outbreak in West Africa has risen to 6,331 in the three worst hit countries, with Sierra Leone overtaking Liberia as the country with the highest number of cases, the World Health Organization says.

"We know the outbreak is still flaming strongly in western Sierra Leone and some parts of the interior of Guinea. We can't rest, we have to still push on," said David Nabarro, the U.N. Special Envoy on Ebola.

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Red Cross needs volunteers to help contain Ebola in West Africa

CANADIAN BROADCASTING CORPORATION                   Dec. 14, 2014

The Canadian Red Cross is looking for people to help with the ongoing Ebola outbreak in West Africa.

Chris Baert-Wilson, Atlantic director of community health for the Canadian Red Cross, says her organization is looking for more medical professionals from this region to head to West Africa to help contain the spread.  

The Red Cross is looking for 150 volunteers over the next six months. She said that would be enough to have 16 staff at any given time. Baert-Wilson says there are just 16 applicants so far.  

"We’re looking for folks with infection prevention and control [experience], … doctors, we’re looking for nurses to help out, and we’re looking for folks that can provide psycho-social support — so social workers, that style of professional, that are able to support the families and the patients that have Ebola," says Baert-Wilson.

Read complete report.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/red-cross-needs-volunteers-to-help-contain-ebola-in-west-africa-1.2864188

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Sierra Leone Doctors Strike for Better Ebola Care

BBC   by CLARENCE ROY-MACAULAY                        Dec. 8, 2014

FREETOWN -- Junior doctors in Sierra Leonewent on strike Monday to demand better treatment for health workers infected with Ebola, a health official said.

The association representing junior doctors asked the government to make sure life-saving equipment, like dialysis machines, is available to treat infected doctors. The government has promised that a new, fully equipped unit is opening soon near the capital. But the doctors began their strike anyway, according to Health Ministry spokesman Jonathan Abass Kamara.

Ten of the 11 Sierra Leonean doctors who have become infected have died....

As infection rates in Liberia and Guinea begin to stabilize, Sierra Leone has now recorded the highest number of cases, and Sierra Leoneans have been asking why the disease is picking up pace there.  Some have lashed out at the British response. In particular, the charity Save the Children, which is running the first U.K.-built treatment center to open, has been criticized for a slow and disorganized rollout.

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Ebola crisis: Sierra Leone case number surpasses Liberia

BBC                                                             Dec. 8, 2014

Sierra Leone has overtaken neighbouring Liberia as the country with the highest number of Ebola cases, the latest World Health Organization figures suggest.

Its latest estimate of the cumulative number of cases since the start of the outbreak in March now stands at 7,780 in Sierra Leone and 7,719 in Liberia.

In Guinea, the figure is 2,283. The virus has killed more than 6,300 people in the three West African countries. Just over half the reported deaths have been in Liberia, the WHO says.

On Monday, the organisation said its 60-day goals for tackling Ebola - treating 70% of patients and burying 70% of victims by 1 December - had been largely met in the three countries at the centre of the outbreak.

However it also said that the treatment figure in Sierra Leone had fallen below the mark.

Read complete story

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-30387906

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Rapid Ebola test is focus of NIH grant to Rutgers scientist

REPORTS Of RESEARCH ON TWO METHODS OF RAPID TESTING FOR EBOLA

(Two items, scroll down)

MEDICAL PRESS                                                                                     Dec. 8, 2014

Rutgers researcher David Alland, working with the California biotechnology company Cepheid, has received a grant of nearly $640,000 from the National Institutes of Health to develop a rapid test to diagnose Ebola as well as other viruses that can cause symptoms similar to Ebola.

Researchers will adapt this cartridge, now used worldwide for tuberculosis screenings, to collect and test samples from potential Ebola patients. Credit: John Emerson

Alland, a professor of medicine and associate dean for clinical research at Rutgers New Jersey Medical School and the principal investigator of the project, says would be able to take the test to small villages and other remote locations where the spread of Ebola has been especially rampant and diagnose patients where they live...

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Sierra Leone Baffled by Doctors' Ebola Deaths

VOICE OF AMERICA  by James Butty                             Dec. 8, 2014
FREETOWN --Sierra Leone’s chief medical officer has said he is baffled by the deaths of three doctors from Ebola over a three-day period.  

Dr. Brima Kargbo said a survey conducted jointly with the U.S. Centers for Disease Control (CDC) found that 70 percent of infections did not come from either the country’s Ebola holding centers or treatment facilities. 

FILE - A health worker prepares to disinfect a van used for burial purposes in Freetown, Sierra Leone.

Kargbo said Dr. Aiah Solomon Konoyeima died Saturday, becoming the 10th Sierra Leonean physician to die of the virus. 

“We have Dr. Tom Rogers and Dr. [Dauda] Koroma, who were buried yesterday, and also Dr. Konoyeima,” Dr. Kargbo said.

Rogers was a surgeon at the Connaught Hospital, the main referral unit in the capital, Freetown. He was reportedly being treated at the British-run Kerry Town Ebola treatment center. He was said to be responding well to treatment when his condition deteriorated dramatically on Friday.

Koroma died at the Hastings Treatment Center, which is run entirely by local Sierra Leone medics.

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Response to Typhoon in Philippines Shows Lessons Learned From a Year Ago

NEW YORK TIMES  by Austin Ramzy                                                                 Dec. 7, 2014

LEGAZPI, the Philippines — As Typhoon Hagupit churned across the Philippines on Sunday, residents of the eastern part of the island nation expressed relief that they had joined the hundreds of thousands who had evacuated to safer ground.

Residents waded through floodwaters on Sunday in Borongan City, the Philippines. Typhoon Hagupit is expected to churn over the country until Wednesday. Credit Francis R. Malasig/European Pressphoto Agency

By late Sunday, what had been classified as a super typhoon was far weaker than Haiyan was when it hit, and was continuing to weaken. The storm, which is expected to push its way across the country until Wednesday, was generating strong winds and rain, but the overall effect was not as devastating as worst-case scenarios had anticipated.

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An Ebola Doctor’s Return From the Edge of Death

Detailed description of one Doctor’s Story of Fighting Back From Ebola’s Deadly Grip

NEW YORK TIMES by Denise Grady                                Dec. 8, 2014

Dr. Ian Crozier, 44, contracted Ebola in Sierra Leone while treating patients. He was evacuated to Atlanta on Sept. 9 and had an agonizing illness, with 40 days in the hospital and dark stretches when his doctors and his family feared he might sustain brain damage or die. His identity was kept secret at his request, to protect his family’s privacy.

 

Now, for the first time, he is speaking out. His reason, he said, is to thank Emory for the extraordinary care he received, and to draw attention to the continuing epidemic.

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Ebola fight sees Canadian Forces medical team deployed to Sierra Leone

CBC NEWS                                                                                                                     Dec.6, 2014

A Canadian Forces medical team left CFB Trenton in Ontario on Saturday en route to Britain, where they’ll undergo training before deploying to Sierra Leone as part of the effort to combat the Ebola outbreak, the military said.

Judith Bosse, (left to right), Assistant Deputy Minister at the Public Health Agency of Canada, Defence Minister Rob Nicholson, Health Minister Rona Ambrose and Dr. Gregory Taylor, Canada's Chief Public Health Officer, watch a nurse demonstrate how to remove protective clothing after treating a hypothetical Ebola patient. (Patrick Doyle/Canadian Press)

The Forces said about 40 nurses, doctors, physicians’ assistants, medics and support are to train alongside U.K. military personnel, and most of them will continue on to Sierra Leone by later this month.

The Canadian Forces team will be working at a British-built clinic in Sierra Leone treating local and international health care workers, who themselves have become infected in the course of treating Ebola patients from the general population.

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