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Variant poised to spike in the south, with few safeguards in place

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The United States is heading into the third year of the coronavirus pandemic with the extremely contagious omicron variant poised to ignite a firestorm of infection across the Southeast after exploding through the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic regions.

Lower vaccination rates and fewer mask and vaccine mandates have created a much different environment for the omicron variant to spread in the South, leaving experts unsure whether outbreaks will end up deadlier than in the North.

Florida, Georgia, Louisiana and Mississippi are among the states experiencing the sharpest increases in covid-19 hospitalizations since Christmas, according to data tracked by The Washington Post. And the situation may only get worse, as initial outbreaks in metropolitan areas spread to more poorly vaccinated rural regions.

Georgia has shattered records, with nearly 1 in 3 tests coming back positive in the last week of December - and in metro Atlanta, nearly half of tests were positive. New daily infections in Florida have hit an average of about 43,000 - far above the peak of 23,000 reached during the delta variant surge in the summer. Louisiana also has eclipsed daily infection records set during its summer surge, with 12,500 cases reported Thursday, which state officials said was nearly twice the record, established in August.

David Rubin, who monitors coronavirus trends nationally for PolicyLab at Children's Hospital of Philadelphia, said he expects the Southeast to be a major driver of the nation's cases this month. But he said he expects a fast decline, mirroring patterns observed during omicron variant surges in South Africa and Britain.

 

"The [South's] bigger test is probably going to be in the summertime, when they usually have their big surges," Rubin said. "We are going to continue to have waves in the new year that I think will become lesser in amplitude over time and will lead to fewer hospitalizations over time."

Maryland Republican Gov. Larry Hogan cautioned Sunday that the next month could mark the "worst part" of the pandemic in his state, with residents who are unvaccinated against the virus placing a strain on hospitals. Hogan appeared on CNN's "State of the Union," days after Maryland hospitals eclipsed a record set a year ago of more than 2,000 people hospitalized with covid-19.

In New York, Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul has held regular briefings since cases started exploding and has required businesses to mandate proof of vaccination for entry or that customers wear masks. But Republican governors in Southern states with outbreaks have remained comparatively muted and have resisted measures to contain the spread, as they did during the delta variant surge.

Texas Republican Gov. Greg Abbott said he would not reconsider his ban on local mask mandates and told a radio station that "we're moving forward with life as we know it" when asked recently about his response to the omicron variant.

As infections in Georgia surge to record highs and hospital beds fill up faster than in any state besides New Jersey, Republican Gov. Brian Kemp announced that his administration would expand testing sites, deploy 200 National Guard troops to hospitals and testing sites, and spend up to $100 million to add as many as 1,000 health care workers. But he pointedly rejected measures to contain the virus and criticized Atlanta for recently reimposing a mask mandate.   ...

 

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