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Sea, Lake, and Overland Surges from Hurricanes (SLOSH)

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SLOSH Model - Introduction

The Sea, Lake and Overland Surges from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model is a computerized numerical model developed by the National Weather Service (NWS) to estimate storm surge heights resulting from historical, hypothetical, or predicted hurricanes by taking into account the atmospheric pressure, size, forward speed, and track data. These parameters are used to create a model of the wind field which drives the storm surge.

The SLOSH model consists of a set of physics equations which are applied to a specific locale's shoreline, incorporating the unique bay and river configurations, water depths, bridges, roads, levees and other physical features.

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Heat Waves Could Be Predicted Weeks in Advance, Study Finds

      

A pedestrian walks along Vanowen Street in Canoga Park during a heat wave. (Anne Cusack / Los Angeles Times)

latimes.com - by Tony Barboza - October 28, 2013

Scientists have discovered a weather pattern that foreshadows heat waves and could be used to predict them more than two weeks in advance, well beyond the 10-day range of weather forecasts, a new study reports.

Researchers at the National Center for Atmospheric Research wondered if the prolonged and often deadly heat waves that hit the United States and other Northern Hemisphere countries during the summer could be triggered by large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns.

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CLICK HERE - STUDY - Probability of US heat waves affected by a subseasonal planetary wave pattern

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Is Weird Winter Weather Related to Climate Change?

NASA Goddard Space Flight Center
The polar jet stream may be driving a "hemispheric pattern of severe weather."

submitted by Paul Pritchard

e360.yale.edu - by Fred Pearce - February 24, 2014

Scientists are trying to understand if the unusual weather in the Northern Hemisphere this winter — from record heat in Alaska to unprecedented flooding in Britain — is linked to climate change. One thing seems clear: Shifts in the jet stream play a key role and could become even more disruptive as the world warms.

This winter’s weather has been weird across much of the Northern Hemisphere. Record storms in Europe; record drought in California; record heat in parts of the Arctic, including Alaska and parts of Scandinavia; but record freezes too, as polar air blew south over Canada and the U.S., causing near-record ice cover on the Great Lakes, sending the mercury as low as minus 50 degrees Celsius in Minnesota, and bringing sharp chills to Texas.

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Ice Storm Wallops Southeast, Stranding Drivers, Cutting Power - Takes Aim at Northeast

      

Traffic moves slowly along Wade Avenue in Raleigh on February 12. Motorists were encouraged to stay off roads.  Lance King / Getty Images

cnn.com - by Ed Payne - February 13, 2014

In the nation's capital, agencies shuttered their doors as the area got up to 11 inches of snow.

The snowfall in Philadelphia was expected to reach 11 inches, while New Yorkers were experiencing what probably will be 15 inches of snow.

In the South, states sprang into cleanup mode as power outages mounted and hundreds of thousands of customers shivered through a cold, dark night.

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Historic Freeze - Polar Vortex Could Break Temperature Records

      

Greg Mauch uses a shovel to clear several inches of snow from her sidewalk in Detroit, Jan. 2, 2014.
Joshua Lott/Reuters

abcnews.com - Associated Press - by Carson Walker - January 4, 2014

It has been decades since parts of the Midwest experienced a deep freeze like the one expected to arrive Sunday, with potential record-low temperatures heightening fears of frostbite and hypothermia even in a region where residents are accustomed to bundling up.

This "polar vortex," as one meteorologist calls it, is caused by a counterclockwise-rotating pool of cold, dense air. The frigid air, piled up at the North Pole, will be pushed down to the U.S., funneling it as far south as the Gulf Coast.

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WEATHER ADVISORY -URGENT

Tue Nov 26 15:57:54 2013 
STATUS: Open - Active 
PROGNOSIS: Monitoring 
Weather-Nor-Easter 
Citywide  

 

(OEM WEATHER DISTRIBUTION LIST)

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 
345 PM EST TUE NOV 26 2013

...STRONG WINDS EXPECTED FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MAINLY 
IN AND NEAR NEW YORK CITY AND COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW 
YORK AND CONNECTICUT...

NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-HUDSON- 
SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX- 
RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHERN QUEENS- 
SOUTHERN QUEENS- 
345 PM EST TUE NOV 26 2013

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST 
WEDNESDAY...

* LOCATIONS...NEW YORK CITY...HUDSON COUNTY...SOUTHERN 
  WESTCHESTER COUNTY... COASTAL SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT...AND 
  NORTHERN MIDDLESEX COUNTY.

* HAZARDS...STRONG WINDS.

* WINDS...SOUTHEAST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.

* TIMING...STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY 
  WEDNESDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...POTENTIAL FOR DOWNED TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES...AND 
  POSSIBLY A FEW TREES...CAUSING PROPERTY DAMAGE AND POWER 
  OUTAGES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

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Boulder Flood Relief

                                                   CLICK HERE - BOULDER FLOOD RELIEF

            

Boulder Flood Relief is a local, boots on the ground, all-volunteer group organizing relief for displaced and in need individuals.

Call: (720) 943-4482

http://boulderfloodrelief.org/

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E. Coli, Oil Spills and Airlifts: Fallout from Colorado Flooding Continues

cnn.com - by Greg Botelho and Elwyn Lopez - September 20, 2013

(CNN) -- Efforts continued Friday to cope with fallout from flooding that''s rocked the Rocky Mountain state -- including more airlifts of stranded residents, discoveries of oil spills and a plea to one town's residents to stay away until E. coli is cleared from their tap water.

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Lyons Flooded: Colorado Town Completely Isolated, With No Sewage, No Fresh Water

      

Three vehicles crashed into a creek close after the road washed out from beneath them near Dillon Rd. and 287 in Broomfield, Colorado, September 12, 2013 in heavy flooding. Three people were rescued. (Andy Cross, The Denver Post)

huffingtonpost.com - by Andrea Rael - September 12, 2013

Residents in Lyons, Colorado are "completely isolated" by floodwaters that have disrupted their sewer and fresh water.

Boulder County Sheriff Joseph Pelle told 7News that residents were being told to reach for higher ground.

"They're completely isolated at this point. There is no access in or out," Pelle said during a Thursday media briefing. "They've lost their sewer plant, they've lost their fresh water, lost their market."

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Scientists Predicted A Decade Ago Arctic Ice Loss Would Worsen Western Droughts. Is That Happening Already?

thinkprogress.org - by Joe Romm - June 30, 2013

(SEE LINKS BELOW FOR 2004 STUDY, 2005 STUDY, AND 2013 CRYOSAT ARTICLE)

Scientists predicted a decade ago that Arctic ice loss would bring on worse western droughts. Arctic ice loss has been much faster than the researchers — and indeed all climate modelers — expected (see “CryoSat-2 Confirms Sea Ice Volume Has Collapsed“).

It just so happens that the western U.S. is in the grip of a brutal, record-breaking drought. Is this just an amazing coincidence — or were the scientists right and what would that mean for the future? I ask the authors.

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