Why new cases of the coronavirus are down across most of the U.S.

Key Points:

• White House coronavirus advisor Dr. Anthony Fauci warned members of Congress in late June that the U.S. might report more than 100,000 daily new cases of the virus “if this does not turn around.”
• But months later, Fauci’s worst fears have not come to pass as daily new cases have steadily fallen across much of the U.S. over the past month.
• Epidemiologists say more unified health messaging, public compliance and closures of businesses are largely to thank for the drop.

Epidemiologists credit a more unified health message in the U.S. that has more people following social distancing rules. They also say that keeping some businesses closed has helped slow the outbreak. And President Donald Trump started endorsing masks in late July, bringing the White House in line with recommendations from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention after months of resistance.

The number of daily new cases in the U.S. peaked on July 22 at about 70,000 new infections and have steadily fallen to about 42,600 per day, based on a seven-day average, according to a CNBC analysis of data compiled by Johns Hopkins University. The percent of all tests coming back positive has also steadily fallen, from a high of 8.5% in late July to 6.2% this week, according to Hopkins data. That, along with the four weeks of sustained decline and the falling number of Covid-19 hospitalizations, has epidemiologists feeling more confident that the U.S. is finally getting a grip on its outbreak.

“The current plan — wearing a mask, watching your distance, washing your hands, supplemented by smart testing, according to the state plans, surge testing and extreme technical assistance by CDC as well as our craft teams — continues to yield results,” Assistant Secretary for Health Adm. Brett Giroir told reporters on a conference call last week....